Container shipping rates from Asia to the U.S. continued to surge this week—nearly doubling over the past four weeks—due to soaring demand driven by the potential reinstatement of tariffs, while shipping capacity remains constrained.

Supply chain consultancy Drewry noted that the recent short-term spike in the global container shipping supply-demand balance has reversed the price decline trend that began in January.

Shipping rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles jumped 57% this week, while rates from Shanghai to New York rose 39%, according to Drewry data.

Other maritime transport analysts also reported similarly sharp increases.

On the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), shipping rates from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast surged 58% to $5,172 per FEU, marking the largest weekly percentage increase since 2016 when high demand coincided with limited supply, although capacity is now increasing as carriers resume previously suspended sailings.

Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, stated that nearly 400,000 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) will return to the market in the near future.

Murphy said, “If we combine June and July, shipping capacity from Asia to the U.S. West Coast in June will increase by 12.8% compared to the period before the tariff suspension, and by 16.5% in July compared to the same point.”

Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, believes this sharp surge is driven by shippers worried about near-term shipments and willing to pay higher prices.

“Right now, it seems like carriers are asking and shippers are responding: ‘How high does it need to be?’” Sand said.

“This situation won’t last long because shipping capacity is returning to the trans-Pacific route, and the urgency among shippers will decrease as goods begin moving and inventories are replenished,” Sand added. “Rates are expected to peak in June before downward pressure resumes.”

Data from Freightos shows that rates have not yet fully captured the spike, but Judah Levine, the company’s head of research, said that general rate increases (GRI) from June 1 are driving daily prices sharply higher.

Levine stated, “Rates have risen 72% to the West Coast to $4,765 per FEU and 44% to the East Coast to $5,721 per FEU since last week, and further increases are likely.”

Analysts from Flexport forecast a shipping surge from Southeast Asia to the U.S. West Coast by the end of June, with carriers expected to resume full operations by then.

Container shipping and related freight costs are tied to the chemical industry because, while most chemicals are liquids transported via liquid cargo ships, containers are used to ship products like polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP) pellets, and titanium dioxide (TiO₂).

Liquid chemicals are also transported in specialized containers called isotanks.

Liquid Cargo Shipping Rates

Chemical shipping rates from the U.S. have been largely stable, according to ICIS, though rates from the U.S. Gulf (USG) to Europe have decreased.

The USG–Rotterdam route remains generally stable as weak demand is offset by limited supply, particularly for large shipments like methanol, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), and caustic soda, which have been secured or are being negotiated for delivery to the ARA region. Some smaller shipments of glycol and styrene are also being considered.

Interest in shipping glycol to China on the USG–Asia route has declined significantly, with only a few new inquiries. Conversely, several large methanol shipments have been secured or are under negotiation for this region.

With long-term contract of affreightment (COA) agreements being reinforced and limited market participation, freight rates have slightly decreased, particularly for smaller shipments.

The USG–Brazil route remains stable, with rates unchanged from last week. The market activity is steady with only a few new inquiries.

Overall, the market remains slow despite many quoted and negotiated shipments. Activity typically increases in the summer, but no signs of this have yet appeared. Therefore, freight rates are expected to remain stable in the near term.